SC Freiburg 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Freiburg face FSV Mainz 05.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SC Freiburg and FSV Mainz 05 meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

SC Freiburg's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of SC Freiburg's games and 80% of FSV Mainz 05's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for SC Freiburg, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended SC Freiburg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

FSV Mainz 05 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 60% versus FSV Mainz 05 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 67% | FSV Mainz 05 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.64 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.004 / defence 1.082 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.306 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.570. FSV Mainz 05 have an above-average attack rating of 1.306, which lifts their away xG to 2.22. Data: built from SC Freiburg's last 42 games and FSV Mainz 05's last 42.

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 27% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 49%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.73 | Draw 4.20 | FSV Mainz 05 2.02. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (1.64 / 2.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SC Freiburg's last 10 home games and FSV Mainz 05's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Freiburg 90% (last 10 home games) | FSV Mainz 05 80% (last 10 away games).

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