SC Freiburg 0-3 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Europa-Park Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SC Freiburg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 4D 4L at Europa-Park Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Europa-Park Stadion this season.
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.30 for FC St. Pauli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 60% and FC St. Pauli 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 66% | FC St. Pauli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.15 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.080 / defence 0.920 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.674 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.630. Data: 38 SC Freiburg games / 4 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 61% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 14%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | FC St. Pauli 7.14. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 100% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 61% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG SC Freiburg 2.15 / FC St. Pauli 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.080 / def 0.920 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.674 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.630 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC St. Pauli xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
SC Freiburg 0 - 3 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 61% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.08x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.67x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.10
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.16
1.01
FC St. Pauli xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
59.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.01 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Freiburg come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 9D 15L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.84 PPG from 38 outings (20W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SC Freiburg's home form reads 7W 7D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.66 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 20W 10D 8L in their last 38 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.47 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SC Freiburg have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC St. Pauli won 0-3 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SC Freiburg
0
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for SC Freiburg, 68% for FC St. Pauli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for SC Freiburg and 58% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of SC Freiburg's games and 68% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SC Freiburg's matches and 58% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SC Freiburg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC St. Pauli run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SC Freiburg 0-3 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.15 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.01 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.67 / defence 1.17, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 61% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 14%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, FC St. Pauli 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.