SC Freiburg 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Freiburg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in SC Freiburg's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, SC Freiburg are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 4–0 with SC Freiburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 57% versus FC Augsburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 61% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.00 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.927 / defence 0.815 | FC Augsburg attack 1.181 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.944 / away 1.385. Data: 51 SC Freiburg games / 51 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 4.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG SC Freiburg 2.00 / FC Augsburg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.927 / def 0.815 | FC Augsburg attack 1.181 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.944 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 52% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
Record (3 meetings): SC Freiburg 3W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SC Freiburg's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.18x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.37
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.34
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
3%
29.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.33 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 24W 14D 13L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 15W 11D 25L from 51 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (13W 7D 5L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 5D 14L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.20 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 24W 14D 13L in their last 51 games (1.69 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 15W 11D 25L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.84 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.92 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 0-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
SC Freiburg
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 64%, FC Augsburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SC Freiburg) and 56% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SC Freiburg's games and 52% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SC Freiburg's matches and 56% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.00 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.93 / defence 0.81 against FC Augsburg attack 1.18 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 52% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 25%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 61%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.