SC Freiburg 2-4 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as SC Freiburg take on Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Schwarzwald-Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.80 PPG across 5 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 0L. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 1W 2D 0L from 3 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 80% and Bayer Leverkusen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SC Freiburg 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 0.94 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.875 / defence 1.074 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.668 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.295. Data: 5 SC Freiburg games / 5 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 3.33 | Draw 2.50 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.33. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SC Freiburg 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Schwarzwald-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG SC Freiburg 0.94 / Bayer Leverkusen 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.875 / def 1.074 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.668 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bayer Leverkusen xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
SC Freiburg 2 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 30% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 30% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.88) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.67x) against SC Freiburg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.31
40%
2.49
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
1.87
0.93
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 14.3 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 0.93 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 3D 1L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 60%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have SC Freiburg or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for SC Freiburg, 60% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for SC Freiburg and 20% for Bayer Leverkusen.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SC Freiburg's games and 60% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 20% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat SC Freiburg 2-4 at Schwarzwald-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 0.94 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 0.93 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.88 / defence 1.07 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.67 / defence 0.88, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 30% | Draw 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 40%, Bayer Leverkusen 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. SC Freiburg scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.