RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Union Berlin travel to Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, RB Leipzig stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, RB Leipzig have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Union Berlin — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Union Berlin have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
RB Leipzig are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of RB Leipzig's games and 60% of Union Berlin's (from RB Leipzig's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Union Berlin have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for RB Leipzig.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2025, ended RB Leipzig 1–3 Union Berlin — a Union Berlin win.
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 55% versus Union Berlin 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 61% | Union Berlin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.16 xG and Union Berlin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.197 / defence 0.871 | Union Berlin attack 0.722 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.463. Union Berlin's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from RB Leipzig's last 64 games and Union Berlin's last 64.
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 66% | Draw 19% | Union Berlin 15%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.52 | Draw 5.16 | Union Berlin 6.73. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 2), but RB Leipzig carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (RB Leipzig's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RB Leipzig 60% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 66% | Draw 19% | Union Berlin 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG RB Leipzig 2.16 / Union Berlin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.197 / def 0.871 | Union Berlin attack 0.722 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Union Berlin xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin kick off?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
RB Leipzig 3 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin part of?
RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 66% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RB Leipzig and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RB Leipzig's last 64 games and Union Berlin's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.16
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.08
0.92
Union Berlin xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
12%
8.69
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
2%
58.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.92 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, RB Leipzig have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 31W 17D 16L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Union Berlin's form line: 18W 19D 27L from 64 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, RB Leipzig have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 32 home games (18W 8D 6L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 9W 6D 17L from their last 32 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.09 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
RB Leipzig (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Leipzig
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 31W 17D 16L in their last 64 games (1.72 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 18W 19D 27L in their last 64 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or Union Berlin away?
RB Leipzig's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 1.94 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.03 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Sep 2023, when RB Leipzig won Union Berlin 0-3 RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Leipzig have won 3, Union Berlin have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: RB Leipzig 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 62%, Union Berlin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (RB Leipzig) and 50% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union Berlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Leipzig and Union Berlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 44% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RB Leipzig and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of RB Leipzig's matches and 50% of Union Berlin's.
Do RB Leipzig and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of RB Leipzig's recent matches and 69% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Leipzig cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat Union Berlin 3-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.16 xG and Union Berlin 0.92 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RB Leipzig beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.20 / defence 0.87 against Union Berlin attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 66% | Draw 19% | Union Berlin 15%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 61%, Union Berlin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Berlin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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