RB Leipzig 3-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Leipzig at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RB Leipzig host FC Augsburg at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
RB Leipzig — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — RB Leipzig are significantly better at Red Bull Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, RB Leipzig have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. RB Leipzig register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 1, FC Augsburg 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RB Leipzig in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Leipzig 57% versus FC Augsburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 62% | FC Augsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.25 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 0.992 / defence 0.989 | FC Augsburg attack 1.156 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.281. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 RB Leipzig games / 61 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 23%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 4.35. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Leipzig are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 60% | FC Augsburg 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG RB Leipzig 2.25 / FC Augsburg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 0.992 / def 0.989 | FC Augsburg attack 1.156 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Augsburg xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig 3 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg part of?
RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 54% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
Record (3 meetings): RB Leipzig 1W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
RB Leipzig's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.34
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.72
1.47
FC Augsburg xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
11%
9.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
2%
41.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.47 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RB Leipzig come into this having played 61 games, going 31W 13D 17L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.10 PPG from 61 outings (18W 13D 30L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
RB Leipzig's home form reads 20W 4D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (6W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.21 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 31W 13D 17L in their last 61 games (1.74 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 18W 13D 30L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FC Augsburg away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.13 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
RB Leipzig
4
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 53%, FC Augsburg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for RB Leipzig and 60% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of RB Leipzig's games and 57% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of RB Leipzig's matches and 60% of FC Augsburg's.
Do RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Leipzig edge out FC Augsburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat FC Augsburg 3-2 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.25 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 0.99 / defence 0.99 against FC Augsburg attack 1.16 / defence 1.29, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 54% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 23%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 62%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.