Hertha BSC 1-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees VfL Bochum travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 February 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion Berlin this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Hertha BSC) versus 1.40 (VfL Bochum). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 0 for VfL Bochum and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 60% versus VfL Bochum 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 65% | VfL Bochum 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.72 xG and VfL Bochum 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.905 / defence 1.097 | VfL Bochum attack 0.643 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.358. Data: 54 Hertha BSC games / 20 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 53% | Draw 28% | VfL Bochum 19%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | VfL Bochum 5.26. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 80% | VfL Bochum 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 53% | Draw 28% | VfL Bochum 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Hertha BSC 1.72 / VfL Bochum 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.905 / def 1.097 | VfL Bochum attack 0.643 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
VfL Bochum xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Hertha BSC 1 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 53% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.91x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Bochum's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.55
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.68
0.96
VfL Bochum xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
3%
29.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.96 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 4D 10L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Bochum sit at 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.10 PPG, VfL Bochum on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hertha BSC's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Bochum have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (2W 0D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 0.95 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 7W 3D 10L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or VfL Bochum away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.40 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC's record when hosting VfL Bochum specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, VfL Bochum have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Hertha BSC 1-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 80%, VfL Bochum 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Hertha BSC) and 50% (VfL Bochum). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hertha BSC's games and 30% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hertha BSC's matches and 50% of VfL Bochum's.
Do Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 21, as Hertha BSC and VfL Bochum drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.72 xG and VfL Bochum 0.96 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against VfL Bochum attack 0.64 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 53% | Draw 28% | VfL Bochum 19%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 65%, VfL Bochum 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.10 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.