Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Olympiastadion Berlin — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Bundesliga matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.75 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.95 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.25). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 75% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 100% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.36 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.909 / defence 1.001 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.709 / defence 1.518. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.333. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.518 — this is suppressing Hertha BSC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Hertha BSC games / 4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 66% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 66% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 58% | xG Hertha BSC 2.36 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.909 / def 1.001 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.709 / def 1.518 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hertha BSC 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 66% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.91) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.42
11%
9.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.31
0.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
9.12
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
9%
10.61
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
1%
96.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.95 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 0D 3L record — L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hertha BSC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.50 scored and 2.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hertha BSC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 5, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 75%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Hertha BSC and 50% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hertha BSC's games and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hertha BSC's matches and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 2.36 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.95 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.71 / defence 1.52, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 66% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 11%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 100%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 0.75 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hertha BSC conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.