Hertha BSC 2-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees FC Augsburg travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 March 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion Berlin: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Augsburg — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hertha BSC have won 1, FC Augsburg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2020, ended 3–0 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 52% versus FC Augsburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 56% | FC Augsburg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 0.99 xG and FC Augsburg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.697 / defence 1.454 | FC Augsburg attack 0.684 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.413. Hertha BSC's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Hertha BSC games / 23 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 25% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 45%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | FC Augsburg 2.22. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 40% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 25% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Hertha BSC 0.99 / FC Augsburg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.697 / def 1.454 | FC Augsburg attack 0.684 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FC Augsburg xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Hertha BSC 2 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 25% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.70) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
25%
3.97
30%
3.35
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.40
1.41
FC Augsburg xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.8 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.41 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC come into this having played 23 games, going 4W 6D 13L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 0.78 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hertha BSC's home form reads 2W 2D 7L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.00 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 4W 6D 13L in their last 23 games (0.78 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 0.73 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hertha BSC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2020, when Hertha BSC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 5, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 46%, FC Augsburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hertha BSC) and 46% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 36%; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 54% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 46% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hertha BSC defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat FC Augsburg 2-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.99 xG and FC Augsburg 1.41 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.70 / defence 1.45 against FC Augsburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.19, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 25% | Draw 30% | FC Augsburg 45%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Hertha BSC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 56%, FC Augsburg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 0.78 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.