Hertha BSC 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Hertha BSC welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Olympiastadion Berlin. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayer Leverkusen are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hertha BSC, 1 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hertha BSC trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 54% versus Bayer Leverkusen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 0.95 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.849 / defence 0.923 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.149 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.610. Data: 39 Hertha BSC games / 39 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 21% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 55%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 21% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Hertha BSC 0.95 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.849 / def 0.923 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.149 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.610 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Bayer Leverkusen xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Hertha BSC 2 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 21% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (4 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 2 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
21%
4.86
24%
4.08
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.71
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.86
21%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
4%
26.81
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.71 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 11W 7D 21L from 39 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 12L across 39 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 10W 5D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.21 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 11W 7D 21L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 20W 7D 12L in their last 39 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.16 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2021, when Hertha BSC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
3
Draws
2
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 68%, Bayer Leverkusen at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Hertha BSC and 68% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hertha BSC's games and 74% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Hertha BSC's matches and 68% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 6, as Hertha BSC and Bayer Leverkusen drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.95 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.15 / defence 0.83, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 21% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 55%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.