FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Hertha BSC travel to OPEL ARENA to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at OPEL ARENA this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at OPEL ARENA this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FSV Mainz 05 are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 0 for Hertha BSC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Hertha BSC trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 54% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 46% | Hertha BSC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG and Hertha BSC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.743 / defence 1.104 | Hertha BSC attack 0.674 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.278. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 FSV Mainz 05 games / 28 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 37% | Draw 33% | Hertha BSC 30%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Hertha BSC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 30% | Hertha BSC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: OPEL ARENA • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 37% | Draw 33% | Hertha BSC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.07 / Hertha BSC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.743 / def 1.104 | Hertha BSC attack 0.674 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hertha BSC xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 May 2021 at OPEL ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at OPEL ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 37% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.74) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
37%
2.73
33%
3.02
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.03
0.95
Hertha BSC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 0.95 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 9W 7D 12L from 28 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 14L across 28 games — 0.93 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.21 PPG, Hertha BSC on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 4W 3D 7L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 2W 5D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 6W 8D 14L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Hertha BSC away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.07 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2021, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
0
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Hertha BSC 1-1 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 43%, Hertha BSC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (FSV Mainz 05) and 43% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 43% of games; Hertha BSC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 57% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 43% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OPEL ARENA, Regular Season - 29, as FSV Mainz 05 and Hertha BSC drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG and Hertha BSC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Hertha BSC attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 37% | Draw 33% | Hertha BSC 30%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 46%, Hertha BSC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.21 PPG, Hertha BSC 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.