FSV Mainz 05 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg meet at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05 at MEWA ARENA this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 0.80 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 1 for FC Augsburg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 58% versus FC Augsburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 58% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.42 xG and FC Augsburg 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.078 / defence 1.105 | FC Augsburg attack 1.168 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.889 / away 1.355. Data: 53 FSV Mainz 05 games / 53 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 26%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 3.85. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.17. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.17 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.17 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 60% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.42 / FC Augsburg 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.078 / def 1.105 | FC Augsburg attack 1.168 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.889 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.75
FC Augsburg xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 52% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
Record (3 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 2W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (1.08) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.17x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
52%
1.94
22%
4.55
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
4.17
1.75
FC Augsburg xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.27
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
9%
11.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.14
2%
42.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.75 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 4.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 19W 12D 22L from 53 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 26L across 53 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.11 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 12W 9D 5L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — FSV Mainz 05 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 6W 5D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FSV Mainz 05 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.19 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 16W 11D 26L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or FC Augsburg away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.73 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 46%, FC Augsburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FSV Mainz 05) and 58% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 54% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 58% of FC Augsburg's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 2.42 xG and FC Augsburg 1.75 xG, a combined 4.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against FC Augsburg attack 1.17 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 52% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 26%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 58%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.30 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.