FSV Mainz 05 0-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host Eintracht Frankfurt at OPEL ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 0W 2D 5L at OPEL ARENA — 0.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 2W 3D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Eintracht Frankfurt are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 64% and Eintracht Frankfurt 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 64% | Eintracht Frankfurt 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.676 / defence 1.204 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.922 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.532. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing FSV Mainz 05's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 FSV Mainz 05 games / 14 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 21% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 49%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.04. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 57% | Eintracht Frankfurt 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: OPEL ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 21% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.07 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.676 / def 1.204 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.922 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 January 2021 at OPEL ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FSV Mainz 05 0 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at OPEL ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 21% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.68) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
21%
4.75
30%
3.38
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.77
1.70
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
4.75
21%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
4%
25.99
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.70 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 1W 3D 10L from 14 games, a 0.43 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 2L across 14 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 0W 2D 5L from 7 games — 0.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.64 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 86%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 1W 3D 10L in their last 14 games (0.43 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 8D 2L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 0.29 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 57%, Eintracht Frankfurt 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FSV Mainz 05) and 71% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FSV Mainz 05 0-2 at OPEL ARENA, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.68 / defence 1.20 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.92 / defence 1.33, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 21% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 49%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.43. Form held, and they took the win. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.