FC St. Pauli 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfB Stuttgart are 1.10 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 41% versus VfB Stuttgart 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 39% | VfB Stuttgart 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 0.98 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.696 / defence 1.025 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.461 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.461. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — the away xG of 2.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 FC St. Pauli games / 54 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 15% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 64%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 6.67 | Draw 4.55 | VfB Stuttgart 1.56. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 50% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 15% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG FC St. Pauli 0.98 / VfB Stuttgart 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.696 / def 1.025 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.461 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
2.19
VfB Stuttgart xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 15% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (3 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.46x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
15%
6.89
22%
4.56
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.17
2.19
VfB Stuttgart xG
6.89
15%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
11%
8.93
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
2%
61.52
24%
4.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 2.19 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 54 games, going 11W 13D 30L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.65 PPG from 54 outings (26W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 5W 8D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.65 points per game from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.87 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 13D 30L in their last 54 games (0.85 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 26W 11D 17L in their last 54 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 0.88 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 35%, VfB Stuttgart 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (FC St. Pauli) and 77% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 58% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play VfB Stuttgart?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 35% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 77% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.98 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.19 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.70 / defence 1.02 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.46 / defence 0.86, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 15% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 64%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 39%, VfB Stuttgart 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with FC St. Pauli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.