1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VfB Stuttgart are 1.50 PPG clear of 1. FC Heidenheim in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: 1. FC Heidenheim 2W, VfB Stuttgart 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Heidenheim 62% | VfB Stuttgart 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.00 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.649 / defence 1.386 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.390 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.398. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.390 — the away xG of 2.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 1. FC Heidenheim games / 56 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 11% | Draw 17% | VfB Stuttgart 73%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 9.09 | Draw 5.88 | VfB Stuttgart 1.37. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 50% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 11% | Draw 17% | VfB Stuttgart 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.00 / VfB Stuttgart 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.649 / def 1.386 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.390 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.69
VfB Stuttgart xG
59%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 11% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 73% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 2W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.39x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.69.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-3 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
11%
9.23
17%
6.01
73%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.69
2.69
VfB Stuttgart xG
9.23
11%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
1.38
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
7%
14.76
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
1%
136.30
27%
3.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.69 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 10W 10D 36L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 27W 11D 18L from 56 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Heidenheim.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 0.64 PPG from 28 outings (4W 6D 18L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 12W 7D 9L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.88 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 10D 36L in their last 56 games (0.71 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 27W 11D 18L in their last 56 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.64 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 43%, VfB Stuttgart 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 79% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play VfB Stuttgart?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 64% of VfB Stuttgart's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 79% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 3-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.00 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.69 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.65 / defence 1.39 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.39 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 11% | Draw 17% | VfB Stuttgart 73%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 62%, VfB Stuttgart 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.