1. FC Heidenheim 3-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face SC Freiburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SC Freiburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 51% versus SC Freiburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 57% | SC Freiburg 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Heidenheim surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while SC Freiburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG and SC Freiburg 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.893 / defence 1.214 | SC Freiburg attack 0.827 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.877 / away 1.319. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Freiburg's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 15 games and SC Freiburg's last 49.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 36% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.79 | Draw 3.32 | SC Freiburg 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 December 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 36% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 / SC Freiburg 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.893 / def 1.214 | SC Freiburg attack 0.827 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.877 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.32
SC Freiburg xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 20 December 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 36% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.83x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 15 games and SC Freiburg's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.32
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.68
1.32
SC Freiburg xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.32 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 49 games, going 24W 12D 13L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.69 PPG from 49 outings (24W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.69 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 16W 5D 3L across their last 24 home games, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 24 away games (9W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; SC Freiburg in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs SC Freiburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 24W 12D 13L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 24W 11D 14L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SC Freiburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.21 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 SC Freiburg on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
3
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: SC Freiburg 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 50%, SC Freiburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 58% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 38%; SC Freiburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 46% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 58% of SC Freiburg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SC Freiburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SC Freiburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SC Freiburg 3-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG and SC Freiburg 1.32 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against SC Freiburg attack 0.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 36% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 34%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 57%, SC Freiburg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.71 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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