1. FC Heidenheim 2-5 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Augsburg make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Heidenheim. A 0.80 PPG lead over FC Augsburg (1.30 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 49% versus FC Augsburg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | FC Augsburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.15 xG and FC Augsburg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.004 / defence 1.096 | FC Augsburg attack 0.776 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.870 / away 1.464. FC Augsburg's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 7 games and FC Augsburg's last 41.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 58% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 21%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.73 | Draw 4.74 | FC Augsburg 4.72. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.15 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 58% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.15 / FC Augsburg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.004 / def 1.096 | FC Augsburg attack 0.776 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.870 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FC Augsburg xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 2 - 5 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 58% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.78x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 7 games and FC Augsburg's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.74
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.39
1.24
FC Augsburg xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
2%
40.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.24 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 41 games, going 21W 11D 9L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 0.95 PPG from 41 outings (10W 9D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 14W 4D 2L across their last 20 home games, a 2.30 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.60 points per game from their last 20 away games (3W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.27 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 63%.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 21W 11D 9L in their last 41 games (1.80 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 10W 9D 22L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FC Augsburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.30 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.60 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 1. FC Heidenheim 4-0 FC Augsburg on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: FC Augsburg 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 50%, FC Augsburg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 70% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 70% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 70% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 90% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Augsburg run riot with a 2-5 hammering of 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-5 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.15 xG and FC Augsburg 1.24 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.24 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against FC Augsburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 58% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 21%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, FC Augsburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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