FC Augsburg 0-0 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Werder Bremen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC Augsburg, 1.20 for Werder Bremen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: FC Augsburg 4W, Werder Bremen 3W, 1D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 50% versus Werder Bremen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Werder Bremen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.60 xG and Werder Bremen 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.819 / defence 1.127 | Werder Bremen attack 1.028 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.421. Data: 48 FC Augsburg games / 48 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 37% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 39%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Werder Bremen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Werder Bremen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 37% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Augsburg 1.60 / Werder Bremen 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.819 / def 1.127 | Werder Bremen attack 1.028 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Werder Bremen xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg 0 - 0 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 37% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
Record (8 meetings): FC Augsburg 4W | Draws 1 | Werder Bremen 3W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.82) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.03x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
37%
2.72
24%
4.09
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.24
1.65
Werder Bremen xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.65 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 15W 11D 22L from 48 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 17L across 48 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.40 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 9W 5D 10L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 10W 5D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.50 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.33 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, Werder Bremen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for FC Augsburg and 75% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 58% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Augsburg's matches and 75% of Werder Bremen's.
Do FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 15, as FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.60 xG and Werder Bremen 1.65 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Werder Bremen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Werder Bremen attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 37% | Draw 24% | Werder Bremen 39%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Werder Bremen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.17 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.