FC Augsburg 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. FC Augsburg's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Augsburg lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 52% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.82 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.904 / defence 1.037 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.648 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.414. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 FC Augsburg games / 33 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 57% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 57% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Augsburg 1.82 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.904 / def 1.037 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.648 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 57% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.90x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.65x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
57%
1.77
25%
3.94
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.77
0.95
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
3%
34.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.95 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 8D 16L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 0.55 PPG from 33 outings (3W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
FC Augsburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Augsburg's home form reads 6W 4D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.25 points per game from 16 outings (0W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.82 scored and 2.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 9W 8D 16L in their last 33 games (1.06 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 9D 21L in their last 33 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.38 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when FC Augsburg 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for FC Augsburg, 69% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for FC Augsburg and 81% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of FC Augsburg's games and 69% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Augsburg's matches and 81% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do FC Augsburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.82 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.95 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.65 / defence 1.22, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 57% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 18%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 52%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.55. That form edge translated into the three points. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.