FC Augsburg 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Augsburg face Eintracht Frankfurt.

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Analysis & Preview

Eintracht Frankfurt travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg in Bundesliga (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Eintracht Frankfurt — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 1.30 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC Augsburg have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended FC Augsburg 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 67% and Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 59% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Augsburg surrender their half-time lead 62% of the time, while Eintracht Frankfurt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.52 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.936 / defence 1.154 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.072 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.842 / away 1.427. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 46 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 46.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 32% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.17 | Draw 3.74 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 80% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 70% (last 10 away games).

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