FC Augsburg 1-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 January 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 0.90 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Augsburg, 1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 58% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 56% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.50 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.753 / defence 1.073 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.936 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.985 / away 1.417. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 FC Augsburg games / 50 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Jan 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 1.50 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.753 / def 1.073 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.936 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.985 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 25 January 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 39% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (2 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.81
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.92
1.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.42 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 11D 25L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.34 PPG from 50 outings (18W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.06 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 6D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (4W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.68 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 72%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 11D 25L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.25 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 67%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Augsburg) and 58% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Augsburg's games and 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Augsburg's matches and 58% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.50 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.07 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 35%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.06 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.