FC Augsburg 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Augsburg are significantly better at WWK Arena than their overall form suggests.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for FC Augsburg, 0.90 for Arminia Bielefeld — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC Augsburg 1W, Arminia Bielefeld 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 49% versus Arminia Bielefeld 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 49% | Arminia Bielefeld 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.38 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.797 / defence 1.199 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.828 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.275. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 FC Augsburg games / 41 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 37% | Draw 32% | Arminia Bielefeld 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Arminia Bielefeld 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 50% | Arminia Bielefeld 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 37% | Draw 32% | Arminia Bielefeld 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Augsburg 1.38 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.797 / def 1.199 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.828 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Arminia Bielefeld xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 37% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (2 meetings): FC Augsburg 1W | Draws 1 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.80x the league average against Arminia Bielefeld's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.83x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.11
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.26
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.26 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 8D 22L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arminia Bielefeld's form line: 9W 12D 20L from 41 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FC Augsburg against 0.95 for Arminia Bielefeld. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Augsburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.71 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 11W 8D 22L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 9W 12D 20L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.25 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.80 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, Arminia Bielefeld 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 45% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 35% of games; Arminia Bielefeld in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 45% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 45% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld finished level at 1-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.38 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.26 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 37% | Draw 32% | Arminia Bielefeld 31%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 49%, Arminia Bielefeld 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.00 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.