Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Union Berlin to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union Berlin — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Union Berlin's 2.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, Union Berlin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and Union Berlin 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 46% | Union Berlin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.06 xG and Union Berlin 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.991 / defence 1.087 | Union Berlin attack 1.229 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.412. Union Berlin's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union Berlin have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 41 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 21% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 56%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Union Berlin 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Union Berlin 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 21% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.06 / Union Berlin 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.991 / def 1.087 | Union Berlin attack 1.229 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Union Berlin xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 21% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
Record (2 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.99) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
21%
4.82
23%
4.36
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.95
1.89
Union Berlin xG
4.82
21%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
15%
6.60
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
3%
31.79
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.89 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 13W 14D 14L from 41 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 9L across 41 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Frankfurt heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 5W 7D 8L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 8W 5D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.59 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 21W 11D 9L in their last 41 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.10 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
4
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, Union Berlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 65%, Union Berlin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 60% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 60% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 60% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Union Berlin 2-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.06 xG and Union Berlin 1.89 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.09 against Union Berlin attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 21% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 56%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Frankfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 46%, Union Berlin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Frankfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.