Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host SC Freiburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 2D 4L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Freiburg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.20 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, SC Freiburg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 74% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 55% | SC Freiburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 0.96 xG and SC Freiburg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.728 / defence 0.948 | SC Freiburg attack 0.921 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.321. Eintracht Frankfurt's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 62 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 29% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 38%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | SC Freiburg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | SC Freiburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 29% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 0.96 / SC Freiburg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.728 / def 0.948 | SC Freiburg attack 0.921 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SC Freiburg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 29% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
29%
3.48
33%
3.05
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.12
1.15
SC Freiburg xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.9 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.15 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 62 games, going 26W 21D 15L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.45 PPG from 62 outings (24W 18D 20L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.60 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 14W 12D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.23 points per game from 31 outings (10W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.55 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 21D 15L in their last 62 games (1.60 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 24W 18D 20L in their last 62 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SC Freiburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.74 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 74%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 58% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 58% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 0.96 xG and SC Freiburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against SC Freiburg attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 29% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 38%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 55%, SC Freiburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.