Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host SC Freiburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 8W 2D 0L at Deutsche Bank Park — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SC Freiburg's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 82% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 64% | SC Freiburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.05 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.277 / defence 1.126 | SC Freiburg attack 0.799 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.289. Eintracht Frankfurt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SC Freiburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Eintracht Frankfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 33 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 19%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | SC Freiburg 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.05 / SC Freiburg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.277 / def 1.126 | SC Freiburg attack 0.799 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 May 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 56% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.97
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.21
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
2%
41.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.16 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 33 games, going 15W 12D 6L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.73 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 9W 7D 0L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.55 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 15W 12D 6L in their last 33 games (1.73 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SC Freiburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 2.12 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 88%, SC Freiburg at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 62% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg 3-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.05 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.28 / defence 1.13 against SC Freiburg attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 19%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 64%, SC Freiburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.73 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.