Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Eintracht Frankfurt (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eintracht Frankfurt face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to Deutsche Bank Park to face Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hertha BSC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hertha BSC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eintracht Frankfurt lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 67% and Hertha BSC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | Hertha BSC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.39 xG and Hertha BSC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.194 / defence 0.927 | Hertha BSC attack 0.872 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.924 / away 1.382. Data: 52 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 52 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 65% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 15%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Hertha BSC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 65% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 62% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.39 / Hertha BSC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.194 / def 0.927 | Hertha BSC attack 0.872 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.924 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC?
Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 65% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 3W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.39. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.87x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
65%
1.55
20%
5.04
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.50
1.12
Hertha BSC xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
9%
10.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
1%
70.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.12 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 17D 16L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 0.96 PPG from 52 outings (13W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 9W 7D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (5W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.10 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 19W 17D 16L in their last 52 games (1.42 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 13W 11D 28L in their last 52 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Hertha BSC away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.36 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 1-4 on 5 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
1
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 64%, Hertha BSC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 56% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 48% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 56% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Hertha BSC 3-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.39 xG and Hertha BSC 1.12 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.19 / defence 0.93 against Hertha BSC attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 65% | Draw 20% | Hertha BSC 15%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 50%, Hertha BSC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.