Eintracht Frankfurt 5-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bayer Leverkusen's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 81% and Bayer Leverkusen 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 58% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.14 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.874 / defence 0.972 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.386 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.737 / away 1.331. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 48 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 22% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.96. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 22% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.14 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.874 / def 0.972 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.386 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.737 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Eintracht Frankfurt 5 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 22% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
22%
4.47
27%
3.73
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.94
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
26.87
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.79 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 20W 18D 10L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 22W 13D 13L from 48 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.62 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (11W 11D 1L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 10W 7D 6L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.83 scored and 1.21 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 20W 18D 10L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 22W 13D 13L in their last 48 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.91 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
Draws
8
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Frankfurt at 87%, Bayer Leverkusen at 52%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 52% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 30%; Bayer Leverkusen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 87% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 52% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 52% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat Bayer Leverkusen 5-2 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.14 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.79 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.39 / defence 0.75, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 22% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Frankfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 58%, Bayer Leverkusen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.