Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Werder Bremen travel to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 March 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 PPG, Werder Bremen 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Werder Bremen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, Werder Bremen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–5 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Werder Bremen trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% | Werder Bremen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.39 xG and Werder Bremen 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.014 / defence 0.983 | Werder Bremen attack 0.883 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.270. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 24 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 14%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Werder Bremen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | Werder Bremen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.39 / Werder Bremen 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.014 / def 0.983 | Werder Bremen attack 0.883 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Werder Bremen xG
63%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 64% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.01x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
64%
1.57
23%
4.43
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.49
1.10
Werder Bremen xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
9%
10.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
1%
79.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.10 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 20W 15D 23L from 58 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 19L across 58 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.29 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 15W 5D 8L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 14W 5D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.76 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 27W 12D 19L in their last 58 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Werder Bremen away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.79 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Werder Bremen won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 68%, Werder Bremen at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 75% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 68% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 75% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 25, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.39 xG and Werder Bremen 1.10 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Werder Bremen attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 14%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%, Werder Bremen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.29 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.