Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Werder Bremen travel to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 January 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 3W 4D 1L at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 PPG, Werder Bremen 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Werder Bremen trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 81% and Werder Bremen 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | Werder Bremen 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 xG and Werder Bremen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.021 / defence 1.101 | Werder Bremen attack 0.796 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.469. Data: 16 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 16 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 32%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Werder Bremen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 88% | Werder Bremen 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jan 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 / Werder Bremen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.021 / def 1.101 | Werder Bremen attack 0.796 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Werder Bremen xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 19 January 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 0 Werder Bremen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 37% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.02x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.21
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.68
1.29
Werder Bremen xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.29 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 6W 7D 3L from 16 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 6L across 16 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Mönchengladbach by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Werder Bremen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 3W 4D 1L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.19 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 6W 7D 3L in their last 16 games (1.56 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Werder Bremen away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.62 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Werder Bremen won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 88%, Werder Bremen at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 25% for Werder Bremen.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 75% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 25% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Mönchengladbach edge out Werder Bremen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Werder Bremen 1-0 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.40 xG and Werder Bremen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Werder Bremen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Werder Bremen attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% | Draw 31% | Werder Bremen 32%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%, Werder Bremen 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.