Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg meet at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for VfL Wolfsburg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% versus VfL Wolfsburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% | VfL Wolfsburg 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.987 / defence 1.256 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.816 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.406. Data: 57 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 57 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 33%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 20%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.987 / def 1.256 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.816 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.44
VfL Wolfsburg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 40% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 0W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.99) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.82x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.66
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.03
1.44
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.44 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 15D 22L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.54 PPG from 57 outings (25W 13D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.54 for VfL Wolfsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 13W 6D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.43 points per game from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 25W 13D 19L in their last 57 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.61 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%, VfL Wolfsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 50% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 2-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.44 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.99 / defence 1.26 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 33%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, VfL Wolfsburg 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.32 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.