Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Borussia Mönchengladbach face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg meet at BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
VfL Wolfsburg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for VfL Wolfsburg and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg — a Borussia Mönchengladbach win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% versus VfL Wolfsburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% | VfL Wolfsburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.68 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.784 / defence 0.988 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.865 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.972 / away 1.557. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.68. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 44 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 45% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 30%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.22 | Draw 3.99 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.35. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 45% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.68 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.784 / def 0.988 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.865 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.972 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.33
VfL Wolfsburg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 10 November 2023 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 45% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.78) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.86x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 44 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.99
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.01
1.33
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.33 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 14D 17L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.41 PPG from 44 outings (17W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.41 for VfL Wolfsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 11W 4D 7L across their last 22 home games, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 22 away games (8W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 13W 14D 17L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 17W 11D 16L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.68 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 VfL Wolfsburg on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%, VfL Wolfsburg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 50% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 27% of games; VfL Wolfsburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 41% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 68% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 4-0 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat VfL Wolfsburg 4-0 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.68 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.33 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.78 / defence 0.99 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 45% | Draw 25% | VfL Wolfsburg 30%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, VfL Wolfsburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Mönchengladbach win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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