Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome VfB Stuttgart to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 May 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.30 PPG versus VfB Stuttgart's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% and VfB Stuttgart 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% | VfB Stuttgart 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.27 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.298 / defence 1.011 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.853 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.272. Borussia Mönchengladbach carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. VfB Stuttgart bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 32 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 16%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | VfB Stuttgart 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | VfB Stuttgart 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.27 / VfB Stuttgart 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.298 / def 1.011 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.853 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.10
VfB Stuttgart xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 62% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.57
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.37
1.10
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
10%
9.68
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
2%
61.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.10 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 12W 10D 10L from 32 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 12L across 32 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.44 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 6W 3D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.69 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 69%.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 12W 10D 10L in their last 32 games (1.44 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.75 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 69%, VfB Stuttgart at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 62% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfB Stuttgart defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 33, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.27 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.10 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.3 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.30 / defence 1.01 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.85 / defence 1.35, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 16%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a VfB Stuttgart win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%, VfB Stuttgart 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.44 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.