Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Mönchengladbach (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Mönchengladbach face FC Schalke 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees FC Schalke 04 travel to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04 away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Schalke 04 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for FC Schalke 04 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% and FC Schalke 04 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 65% | FC Schalke 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.68 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.200 / defence 1.180 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.624 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.962 / away 1.349. Data: 52 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 18 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | Draw 17% | FC Schalke 04 11%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | FC Schalke 04 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.68 / 0.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | FC Schalke 04 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | Draw 17% | FC Schalke 04 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 60% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.68 / FC Schalke 04 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.200 / def 1.180 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.624 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.962 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC Schalke 04 xG
60%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 72% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 0W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.20x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.76
11%
9.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.67
0.99
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
9.46
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
7%
14.56
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
1%
137.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.99 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 52 games, going 19W 13D 20L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 1.44 PPG from 52 outings (22W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.35 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 14W 3D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 1.40 points per game from 25 outings (10W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.65 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC Schalke 04 in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 19W 13D 20L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 22W 9D 21L in their last 52 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.80 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2020, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
0
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04?
From 4 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%, FC Schalke 04 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 60% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 56% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 60% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Borussia Mönchengladbach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 19, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Schalke 04 drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.68 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.99 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 2.7 short of their projected output. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.20 / defence 1.18 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.62 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | Draw 17% | FC Schalke 04 11%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 65%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.35 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.