Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours Bayer Leverkusen — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach host Bayer Leverkusen at BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Bayer Leverkusen have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% versus Bayer Leverkusen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Bayer Leverkusen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.60 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.956 / defence 0.876 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.951 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.399. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 35 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 47% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 27%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 | Draw 3.87 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.68. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Borussia Mönchengladbach 35 games, Bayer Leverkusen 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 2 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 47% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.60 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.956 / def 0.876 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.951 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bayer Leverkusen xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 2) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 47% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.96) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 35 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.87
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.77
1.17
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.17 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 11D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.51 PPG from 35 outings (15W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.26 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across their last 17 home games, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 17 away games (6W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.71 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 15W 8D 12L in their last 35 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.94 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Aug 2021, when Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 47%, Bayer Leverkusen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 59% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 47% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.60 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.17 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 47% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 27%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 63%, Bayer Leverkusen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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