Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Arminia Bielefeld travel to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to take on Borussia Mönchengladbach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Arminia Bielefeld have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for Arminia Bielefeld and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2021, ended 1–0 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 73% versus Arminia Bielefeld 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% | Arminia Bielefeld 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.65 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.133 / defence 1.068 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.681 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.285. Data: 30 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 30 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 20%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Arminia Bielefeld 5.00. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Arminia Bielefeld 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.65 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.133 / def 1.068 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.681 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Arminia Bielefeld xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 5 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 53% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 0W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (1.13) and Arminia Bielefeld's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arminia Bielefeld's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.72
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.58
0.93
Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
4%
25.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.93 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 10D 9L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (8W 6D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (2W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.77 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.71 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2021, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Arminia Bielefeld specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
0
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%, Arminia Bielefeld 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 50% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Arminia Bielefeld 5-0 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.65 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.93 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arminia Bielefeld landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.68 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 20%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 67%, Arminia Bielefeld 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.