Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Werder Bremen to Signal-Iduna-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 April 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 4W 2D 4L at Signal-Iduna-Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Werder Bremen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2020, ended 2–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 64% and Werder Bremen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 75% | Werder Bremen 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.56 xG and Werder Bremen 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.124 / defence 1.140 | Werder Bremen attack 0.773 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.321. Data: 28 Borussia Dortmund games / 28 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 45% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 27%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Werder Bremen 3.70. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 70% | Werder Bremen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 45% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.56 / Werder Bremen 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.124 / def 1.140 | Werder Bremen attack 0.773 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Werder Bremen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 45% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.53
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Werder Bremen xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
6%
17.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.17 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 14W 4D 10L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 7W 9D 12L from 28 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.14 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Werder Bremen in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 14W 4D 10L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 7W 9D 12L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Werder Bremen away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.77 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 54%, Werder Bremen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 77% (Borussia Dortmund) and 23% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Werder Bremen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 54% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 77% of Borussia Dortmund's recent games and 23% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 4-1 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.56 xG and Werder Bremen 1.17 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against Werder Bremen attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 45% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 27%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 75%, Werder Bremen 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.