Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face Werder Bremen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Werder Bremen to Signal Iduna Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 8W 0D 2L at Signal Iduna Park — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Borussia Dortmund: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Werder Bremen, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 47% versus Werder Bremen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 55% | Werder Bremen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.15 xG and Werder Bremen 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.096 / defence 0.777 | Werder Bremen attack 0.886 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 2.013 / away 1.404. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Borussia Dortmund games / 38 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 15%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Werder Bremen 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 40% | Werder Bremen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.15 / Werder Bremen 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.096 / def 0.777 | Werder Bremen attack 0.886 / def 0.973 | league avg home 2.013 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Werder Bremen xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 64% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
Record (9 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 6W | Draws 2 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.78
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.11
0.97
Werder Bremen xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
2%
55.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.97 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 2.24 PPG on a 26W 7D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Werder Bremen's form line: 10W 9D 19L from 38 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.47 PPG from 19 outings (15W 2D 2L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 5D 11L from 19 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.18 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
Werder Bremen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 26W 7D 5L in their last 38 games (2.24 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 10W 9D 19L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Werder Bremen away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.47 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2021, when Borussia Dortmund won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Werder Bremen specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
3
Draws
1
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, Werder Bremen have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 37%, Werder Bremen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Borussia Dortmund) and 53% (Werder Bremen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Werder Bremen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 53% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 53% of Werder Bremen's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen finished level at 2-2 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.15 xG and Werder Bremen 0.97 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.10 / defence 0.78 against Werder Bremen attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 21% | Werder Bremen 15%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 55%, Werder Bremen 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.