Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BVB Stadion Dortmund plays host to Borussia Dortmund versus SV Darmstadt 98 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Dortmund have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Dortmund's home record at BVB Stadion Dortmund: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Borussia Dortmund. A 1.50 PPG lead over SV Darmstadt 98 (1.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Borussia Dortmund lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 3–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 60% versus SV Darmstadt 98 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 66% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.60 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.260 / defence 0.888 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.689 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 2.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Borussia Dortmund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Borussia Dortmund games / 33 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 73% | Draw 19% | SV Darmstadt 98 9%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | SV Darmstadt 98 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 80% | SV Darmstadt 98 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: BVB Stadion Dortmund • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 73% | Draw 19% | SV Darmstadt 98 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 56% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.60 / SV Darmstadt 98 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.260 / def 0.888 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.689 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
56%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at BVB Stadion Dortmund.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at BVB Stadion Dortmund.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 73% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.26x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.69x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
73%
1.38
19%
5.38
9%
11.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.49
0.88
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
11.33
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
7%
13.49
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
1%
152.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.88 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 67 games, going 39W 14D 14L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.25 PPG from 67 outings (23W 15D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 23W 5D 5L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.21 points per game from 33 outings (11W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.19 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 39W 14D 14L in their last 67 games (1.96 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 23W 15D 29L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.24 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 2 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 61%, SV Darmstadt 98 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Borussia Dortmund and 54% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 46% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SV Darmstadt 98 4-0 at BVB Stadion Dortmund, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.60 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 0.88 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.26 / defence 0.89 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.69 / defence 1.26, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 73% | Draw 19% | SV Darmstadt 98 9%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 66%, SV Darmstadt 98 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.