Borussia Dortmund 5-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees SC Freiburg travel to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Borussia Dortmund have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.90 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, SC Freiburg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 3–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 65% and SC Freiburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 71% | SC Freiburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.202 / defence 1.020 | SC Freiburg attack 0.891 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.924 / away 1.382. SC Freiburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Borussia Dortmund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Borussia Dortmund games / 52 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 71% | Draw 16% | SC Freiburg 13%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | SC Freiburg 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.93 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 71% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 50% | SC Freiburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 71% | Draw 16% | SC Freiburg 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 68% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.93 / SC Freiburg 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.202 / def 1.020 | SC Freiburg attack 0.891 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.924 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.25
SC Freiburg xG
68%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund 5 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 71% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 2W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.20x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
71%
1.41
16%
6.24
13%
7.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
6.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
4.19
1.25
SC Freiburg xG
1.41
71%
Home win
6.24
16%
Draw
7.75
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
5%
18.80
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
1%
145.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.25 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 33W 4D 15L from 52 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 13L across 52 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.98 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 19W 1D 5L from 25 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 11W 6D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.67 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 33W 4D 15L in their last 52 games (1.98 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 25W 14D 13L in their last 52 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.32 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 64%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Borussia Dortmund and 64% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 36%; SC Freiburg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 5-1 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.25 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against SC Freiburg attack 0.89 / defence 1.27, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 71% | Draw 16% | SC Freiburg 13%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 71%, SC Freiburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.98 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.84 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.