Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer Leverkusen to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Borussia Dortmund haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 6W 0D 4L at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bayer Leverkusen haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Dortmund at 1.90 PPG versus Bayer Leverkusen's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Borussia Dortmund, 1 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 2–5 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 76% and Bayer Leverkusen 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 76% | Bayer Leverkusen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.97 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.251 / defence 1.066 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.170 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.609. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Borussia Dortmund games / 34 Bayer Leverkusen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 38% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 38% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.97 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.251 / def 1.066 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.170 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.609 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Bayer Leverkusen xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund 1 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 38% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
38%
2.63
23%
4.44
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.98
2.01
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.07
Clean Sheet
13%
7.44
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
5%
19.55
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 2.01 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 22W 3D 9L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. Borussia Dortmund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 19W 7D 8L from 34 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. Bayer Leverkusen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 2.03 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (13W 0D 4L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 9W 5D 3L from 17 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.35 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Pre-Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 22W 3D 9L in their last 34 games (2.03 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 19W 7D 8L in their last 34 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.29 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Dortmund at 76%, Bayer Leverkusen at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Borussia Dortmund and 71% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 82% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 71% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Borussia Dortmund defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.97 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.01 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Borussia Dortmund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.25 / defence 1.07 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.17 / defence 0.93, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 38% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 39%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Borussia Dortmund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 76%, Bayer Leverkusen 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 2.03 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.