Borussia Dortmund 1-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Borussia Dortmund welcome 1. FC Köln to Signal-Iduna-Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 0D 2L from 8 outings — a 2.25 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 games at Signal-Iduna-Park this term (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal-Iduna-Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 0W 3D 5L from 8 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.38 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.87 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.25 vs 0.38. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 25% versus 1. FC Köln 88%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 62% | 1. FC Köln 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.75 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.230 / defence 0.945 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.642 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.612. Data: 8 Borussia Dortmund games / 8 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 52% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Köln 18%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Köln 5.56. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 25% | 1. FC Köln 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 52% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Köln 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.75 / 1. FC Köln 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.230 / def 0.945 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.642 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.612 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.98
1. FC Köln xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2020 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Borussia Dortmund 1 - 2 1. FC Köln.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 52% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-0D-2L in 8 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
52%
1.92
30%
3.31
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.73
0.98
1. FC Köln xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
32.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.98 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 6W 0D 2L from 8 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 5L across 8 games — 0.38 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 1.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Köln heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Köln's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 88%.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 0D 2L in their last 8 games (2.25 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 33%, 1. FC Köln 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Borussia Dortmund) and 0% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; 1. FC Köln in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play 1. FC Köln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 67% of 1. FC Köln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Borussia Dortmund's recent games and 0% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Borussia Dortmund 1-2 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.75 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.98 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.94 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.64 / defence 1.08, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 52% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Köln 18%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Köln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 62%, 1. FC Köln 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.38. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Köln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.