Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 46%, yet in-form Bayer Leverkusen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Hertha BSC to BayArena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 5W 3D 0L from 8 outings — a 2.25 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at BayArena this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 2W 1D 5L from 8 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 2.25. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 2W 0D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.75 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.88 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.37 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.25 vs 0.88. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 75% and Hertha BSC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 50% | Hertha BSC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG and Hertha BSC 2.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.307 / defence 1.192 | Hertha BSC attack 1.200 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.672. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Bayer Leverkusen games / 8 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 31% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 46%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Hertha BSC 2.17. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 2.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bayer Leverkusen (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 80% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 100% | Hertha BSC 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 31% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 80% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 / Hertha BSC 2.39 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.307 / def 1.192 | Hertha BSC attack 1.200 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.672 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
2.39
Hertha BSC xG
80%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 29 November 2020 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 31% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-3D-0L in 8 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.31) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 2.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.2%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.1%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
31%
3.27
23%
4.34
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
4.35
2.39
Hertha BSC xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.25
20%
BTTS No
4.98
Clean Sheet
9%
10.94
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
3%
35.78
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.39 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 4.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 5W 3D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 1.37 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.88 scored and 2.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Hertha BSC in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 5W 3D 0L in their last 8 games (2.25 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Hertha BSC away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.33 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2021, when Hertha BSC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayer Leverkusen at 100%, Hertha BSC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Bayer Leverkusen and 100% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 67% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 100% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bayer Leverkusen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 9, as Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 xG and Hertha BSC 2.39 xG, a combined 4.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.31 / defence 1.19 against Hertha BSC attack 1.20 / defence 1.15, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 31% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 46%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 95% and missed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 50%, Hertha BSC 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.