Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (81%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bayer Leverkusen face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen host Borussia Mönchengladbach at BayArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's home record at BayArena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bayer Leverkusen have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bayer Leverkusen: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 3–0 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayer Leverkusen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 54% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 71% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 3.49 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.410 / defence 0.723 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.192 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.311. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — their λ of 3.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Bayer Leverkusen games / 52 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 81% | Draw 12% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 8%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (81%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 4.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (3.49 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 84% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 81% | Draw 12% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 66% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 3.49 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.410 / def 0.723 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.192 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.49
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
66%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 81% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 8% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (5 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 4W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.49. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (7.0%), 4-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
81%
1.24
12%
8.67
8%
12.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
7.0%
Home win
4 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.49
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
4.62
1.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.24
81%
Home win
8.67
12%
Draw
12.89
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
3%
32.72
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 3.49 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.13 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 4.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 29W 11D 12L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 16W 15D 21L from 52 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (16W 4D 5L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 10D 13L from 25 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.67 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 29W 11D 12L in their last 52 games (1.88 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.08 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
4
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayer Leverkusen at 56%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Bayer Leverkusen and 80% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 80% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bayer Leverkusen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BayArena, Regular Season - 19, as Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 3.49 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.13 xG, a combined 4.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 3.5 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.41 / defence 0.72 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.19 / defence 1.40, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 81% | Draw 12% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 8%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 95% and missed. Over 3.5 was 68% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 71%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.