Bayer Leverkusen 3-4 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 55%, yet in-form Borussia Dortmund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Borussia Dortmund to BayArena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen at BayArena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.70 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Bayer Leverkusen's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 60% and Borussia Dortmund 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 57% | Borussia Dortmund 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.08 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.179 / defence 0.870 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.160 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.824 / away 1.186. Data: 37 Bayer Leverkusen games / 37 Borussia Dortmund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 55% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 19%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Dortmund 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 70% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 55% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.08 / Borussia Dortmund 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.179 / def 0.870 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.160 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.824 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Borussia Dortmund xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayer Leverkusen 3 - 4 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 55% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.18x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.85
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.27
1.20
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
2%
41.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.20 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 16W 11D 10L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 22W 4D 11L from 37 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.59 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 2D 7L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.27 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 16W 11D 10L in their last 37 games (1.59 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 22W 4D 11L in their last 37 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.78 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Draws
5
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayer Leverkusen at 78%, Borussia Dortmund at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bayer Leverkusen and 72% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 72% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 72% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Borussia Dortmund defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-4 at BayArena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.08 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.20 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.16 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 55% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 19%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 57%, Borussia Dortmund 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.59 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.