Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Borussia Dortmund to BayArena. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 January 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen at BayArena this season: 3W 3D 1L from 7 home games — 1.71 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Bayer Leverkusen) versus 1.40 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 86% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 62% versus Borussia Dortmund 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 56% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.41 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.105 / defence 1.093 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.109 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.456. Data: 16 Bayer Leverkusen games / 16 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 29% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 44%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Dortmund 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 86% | Borussia Dortmund 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 29% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.41 / Borussia Dortmund 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.105 / def 1.093 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.109 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 19 January 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 29% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.10x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
29%
3.45
27%
3.69
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.17
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
17%
5.83
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
5%
20.14
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.76 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 8W 5D 3L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 9W 2D 5L from 16 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.81 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.81 PPG overall record — Borussia Dortmund travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded. Borussia Dortmund's attacking output running into Bayer Leverkusen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 games (1.81 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 2D 5L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.71 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Draws
5
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayer Leverkusen at 86%, Borussia Dortmund at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 57% (Borussia Dortmund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 71% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bayer Leverkusen defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.41 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.10 / defence 1.09 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.11 / defence 1.06, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 29% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 44%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 56%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.81 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.