Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's home record at BayArena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Köln (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.70 for 1. FC Köln — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 2W, 1. FC Köln 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 66% and 1. FC Köln 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 64% | 1. FC Köln 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.70 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.469 / defence 1.097 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.023 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.340. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — their λ of 2.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Bayer Leverkusen games / 59 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 62% | Draw 19% | 1. FC Köln 19%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | 1. FC Köln 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.70 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 62% | Draw 19% | 1. FC Köln 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 73% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.70 / 1. FC Köln 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.469 / def 1.097 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.023 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.70
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.50
1. FC Köln xG
73%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 62% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln?
Record (3 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 2W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.47x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (1.02x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.36
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.70
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
4.21
1.50
1. FC Köln xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
7%
14.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
1%
78.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.50 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 59 games, going 27W 16D 16L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.22 PPG from 59 outings (18W 18D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 15W 7D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.24 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 27W 16D 16L in their last 59 games (1.64 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 18W 18D 23L in their last 59 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.79 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-4 on 16 Dec 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bayer Leverkusen
1
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 7, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when 1. FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Bayer Leverkusen, 66% for 1. FC Köln — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bayer Leverkusen and 55% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 66% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 55% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.70 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.50 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.47 / defence 1.10 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 62% | Draw 19% | 1. FC Köln 19%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Köln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 64%, 1. FC Köln 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Köln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.