Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to SchücoArena to face Arminia Bielefeld in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 2W 4D 4L at SchücoArena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Arminia Bielefeld, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against VfB Stuttgart — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
The historical record gives Arminia Bielefeld a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 38% versus VfB Stuttgart 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 38% | VfB Stuttgart 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.19 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.700 / defence 0.984 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.826 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.299. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Arminia Bielefeld games / 61 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 32%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | VfB Stuttgart 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Arminia Bielefeld 60% | VfB Stuttgart 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.19 / VfB Stuttgart 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.700 / def 0.984 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.826 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.05
VfB Stuttgart xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 38% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (3 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 3W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 0.70x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.83x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.30
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.24
1.05
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.05 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 61 games, going 14W 18D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.16 PPG from 61 outings (18W 17D 26L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.16 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 8W 9D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.49 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 67%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 14W 18D 29L in their last 61 games (0.98 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 18W 17D 26L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.10 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arminia Bielefeld won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
0
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 40%, VfB Stuttgart 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 53% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 37% of games; VfB Stuttgart in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play VfB Stuttgart?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 60% of VfB Stuttgart's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 53% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 28, as Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.19 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.05 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.70 / defence 0.98 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 32%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 38%, VfB Stuttgart 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 0.98 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.