Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SchücoArena plays host to Arminia Bielefeld versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arminia Bielefeld have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's home record at SchücoArena: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Union Berlin in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 0W, Union Berlin 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Union Berlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 41% versus Union Berlin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Union Berlin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 xG and Union Berlin 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.753 / defence 1.046 | Union Berlin attack 0.881 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.394. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Arminia Bielefeld games / 56 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 32% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 36%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Union Berlin 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 70% | Union Berlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 32% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 / Union Berlin 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.753 / def 1.046 | Union Berlin attack 0.881 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Union Berlin xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 32% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin?
Record (3 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 2W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (0.75) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.88x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
32%
3.13
32%
3.11
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.49
1.28
Union Berlin xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.28 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 13W 18D 25L from 56 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 14L across 56 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 7W 9D 12L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 7W 10D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.41 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 13W 18D 25L in their last 56 games (1.02 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 21W 21D 14L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.07 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 5-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Union Berlin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 43%, Union Berlin 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 50% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 64% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 50% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arminia Bielefeld defy the odds to beat Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat Union Berlin 1-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 xG and Union Berlin 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.75 / defence 1.05 against Union Berlin attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 32% | Draw 32% | Union Berlin 36%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Arminia Bielefeld win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 38%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.