1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PreZero Arena plays host to 1899 Hoffenheim versus VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1899 Hoffenheim have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's home record at PreZero Arena: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in 1899 Hoffenheim's favour (2.20 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 4W, VfL Wolfsburg 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 3–2 with 1899 Hoffenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1899 Hoffenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 66% and VfL Wolfsburg 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 63% | VfL Wolfsburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 2.73 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.209 / defence 0.842 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.847 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.396. VfL Wolfsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 1899 Hoffenheim games / 59 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 74% | Draw 16% | VfL Wolfsburg 11%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | VfL Wolfsburg 9.09. The model has a clear lean to 1899 Hoffenheim (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 50% | VfL Wolfsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 74% | Draw 16% | VfL Wolfsburg 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 59% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 2.73 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.209 / def 0.842 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.847 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.73
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.00
VfL Wolfsburg xG
59%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 74% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (9 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 4W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 3W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 1.21x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.85x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 3-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
74%
1.36
16%
6.43
11%
9.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.73
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.72
1.00
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.43
16%
Draw
9.13
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
7%
15.30
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
1%
139.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.73 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.00 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1899 Hoffenheim come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 15D 22L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.07 PPG from 59 outings (16W 15D 28L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.07 for VfL Wolfsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1899 Hoffenheim's home form reads 12W 5D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (11W 5D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 71%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 22W 15D 22L in their last 59 games (1.37 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.41 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 66%, VfL Wolfsburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 62% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 62% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 62% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 1-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 2.73 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.21 / defence 0.84 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.32, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 74% | Draw 16% | VfL Wolfsburg 11%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 63%, VfL Wolfsburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.37 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.