1899 Hoffenheim 0-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host VfB Stuttgart at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfB Stuttgart are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0 for VfB Stuttgart and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2 VfB Stuttgart — a 1899 Hoffenheim win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 76% and VfB Stuttgart 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1899 Hoffenheim 68% | VfB Stuttgart 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.55 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.923 / defence 1.159 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.079 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.372. Data: built from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 59 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 59.
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 34% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 41%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.98 | Draw 3.86 | VfB Stuttgart 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1899 Hoffenheim 90% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 34% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.55 / VfB Stuttgart 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.923 / def 1.159 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.079 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.72
VfB Stuttgart xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart FAQs
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
1899 Hoffenheim 0 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 34% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1899 Hoffenheim's last 59 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.86
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.27
1.72
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.57
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.72 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 19W 12D 28L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
VfB Stuttgart's form line: 26W 12D 21L from 59 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.17 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 6D 13L).
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 10W 5D 14L from their last 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.78 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 66%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim (Home) vs VfB Stuttgart (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Form FAQs
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 19W 12D 28L in their last 59 games (1.17 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 26W 12D 21L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
1899 Hoffenheim's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.24 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Mar 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 1899 Hoffenheim 0-3 VfB Stuttgart.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1899 Hoffenheim
6
Draws
1
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 79%, VfB Stuttgart at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 76% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 69% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 76% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent matches and 76% of VfB Stuttgart's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 0-3 hammering of 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat 1899 Hoffenheim 0-3 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.55 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.72 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 1.6 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 34% | Draw 26% | VfB Stuttgart 41%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 68%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.17 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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